Today, the Office of Economic Analysis presented its sixth of eight economic and revenue forecasts of the 2017-2019. This forecast is somewhat critical in that it is used to develop the Governor’s Recommended Budget for the 2019-2021 biennium which will be released in early December.
For the current biennium, revenues continue to beat predictions and as a result, the tax kicker in 2019 has been increased for the 2nd time from the previous forecasts. As you will recall, the kicker is provided in the form of an income tax rebate. One of the primary drivers for the kicker was the Federal Tax Cut that was enacted earlier this year. However, this return of money will also cause some strain on budget writers who are predicted to face nearly a $1 billion structural shortfall in meeting current service levels.
The forecast anticipates a slowdown in the economy during the next biennium but the big question is when that slowdown will occur, how much of a slowdown and how long it will last.… Read the rest
Congratulations to the following people who just passed their designation exams!
Travis Worthen, CBA – Hajoca Corporation
Timothy Reilly, CBA – Canfor Wood Products Marketing Ltd
Melissa Garcia, CBA – Bridgewell Resources LLC
Julie Gieber, CBA – OrePac Building Products
Alaina Worden, CBA – OrePac Building Products… Read the rest
Clearly, the Blue Wave came from the Pacific Ocean with the largest swell crashing onto Oregon. And it was extreme with voter turnout thus far higher than 60% – higher than any previous mid-term election in Oregon.
In a close race, Governor Brown was re-elected to serve a second term – the timing of her taking over for Governor Kitzhaber makes this the last four years she can serve. All of Oregon’s Congressional members will return to DC and new BOLI commissioner, Val Hoyle, was a shoo-in after the primary vote.
At the legislature, a supermajority for Democrats soaked all hopes of Republicans to garner more relevance.
Currently 17 Democrats to 13 Republicans in the Senate, that division will move to at least 18 to 12 in 2019 with one race still hanging on final vote counts that may make the Senate 19 to 11.… Read the rest
Written by: Dr. Chris Kuehl
This has been a tumultuous year for economists and analysts. I realize this sounds a little lame given all the other stuff that takes place in the course of a year – everything from hurricanes to fires to crime and health scares but we have had our share of the unexpected and inexplicable. Some of this has been generated by a President that leaps in an out of economic issues in a cloud of tweets and leaves everybody wondering what just happened. But there have also been indicators that are not indicating what they used to and reliable theories that are suddenly not all that reliable. The big movements in the economy are making their way through – everything from exiting the age of the Baby Boomer to the rapid pace of robotics and automation.… Read the rest
Written by: Christopher Ng
Yes, California’s Assembly Bill 1701 was a doozy. For those of you not yet familiar with the new law, to make a long story short, AB 1701 makes a direct contractor (California speak for “general contractor”) jointly liable for the unpaid wages, fringe benefits, or other benefit payments or contributions of a subcontractor — at any tier! The new law governs private projects only and applies even if the direct contractor has paid its subcontractor.
Labor Code section 218.7(f) does give the direct contractor the right to inspect each of its subcontractor’s employees’ wage statements and payroll records maintained under Labor Code section 1174. Significantly, such “records must contain information sufficient to apprise the requesting party of the subcontractor’s payment status in making fringe or other benefit payments or contributions to a third party on the employee’s behalf.” Importantly, the direct contractor may withhold as “disputed” all sums owed if a subcontractor fails to timely provide the payroll or project information referenced below until that information is provided.… Read the rest